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There are several factors in the behavior of the ruble:
- 1. The political situation around Russia and oil prices.
According to the first factor, the situation is not yet the most favorable. There are many disagreements, no one has lifted the sanctions yet.
- 2. As for the second factor, oil prices do not promise to grow yet, but on the contrary, sanctions have been lifted from Iran. And this country will actively throw out its volumes of oil on the market. And this means that the collapse in oil prices is still more relevant.
- 3. Experts' forecasts are also not encouraging. Most forecasts come down to the following figures:
25$ per barrel, while the exchange rate of the national currency is from 100 to 120 rubles per dollar.
The government of the Russian Federation is obliged to maintain the dollar exchange rate at such a level that the price of oil, converted into rubles, does not fall below what is budgeted.
On April 10, 2015, amendments to the budget of the Russian Federation were adopted, according to which the price of oil was fixed at the level of 3075 rubles. per barrel.
Accordingly, the budget was drawn up on the assumption that oil would cost $50 per barrel and the dollar would cost 61 rubles 50 kopecks. The budget has been adopted, it must be implemented, and a fall in the ruble price of a barrel below 3,075 rubles is highly undesirable.
Russia has no influence on the price of oil, but the Central Bank is able to tighten the dollar against the ruble.
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And then you yourself can calculate everything using a simple formula:
For example, today the price of oil is 48$
The ruble exchange rate according to the formula (3075/48) = 64 rubles
The current exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar is 65.5 rubles
It seems that everything converges with a small difference of 1.5 rubles.
If oil continues to fall, draw your own conclusions and calculations.
Unfortunately, we cannot change anything, but it is in our power to make the right investments in time, and not only save our money, but even make good money.
The crisis is one for all, the only difference is that some lose on it, while others earn!
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